Hoʻemi ʻia nā kumukūʻai chip, kūʻai ʻole ʻia nā chips.I ka hapa mua o 2022, ma muli o ke koi lohi i kamea uila uilamakeke, ʻo ka ʻoihana chip i hoʻomaka mua i ka hoʻohaʻahaʻa kumu kūʻai, a i ka hapa ʻelua o ka makahiki, ua hoʻomaka hou ka manaʻo.
I kēia mau lā, hōʻike ʻia ka nūhou CCTV ma ke ʻano he mea nui o ka ʻōnaehana uila uila,STMicroelectronicsʻO nā chips kekahi o nā huahana chip i ʻimi nui ʻia i ka makahiki 2021, a ua piʻi ka mākeke ma kahi o 3,500 yuan, akā i ka makahiki 2022, hāʻule ka chip like mai kahi kiʻekiʻe a hiki i 600 yuan, kahi hāʻule a hiki i 80%.
I ka manawa like, he ʻumi ka like ʻole o ke kumukūʻai o kekahi chip i ka makahiki i hala.Hoʻohālikelike nā kumukūʻai Chip i ka puaʻa, i luna a i lalo, ʻo ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe loa a me ka ʻokoʻa o ke kumu kūʻai maʻamau ma mua i hoʻonui nui ʻia, ua hōʻike ʻia ua hōʻike ʻia e ka media he 600 yuan o STMicroelectronics chips, ʻo ke kumu kūʻai maʻamau i 2020 he mau ʻumi wale nō o yuan.
Me he mea lā ua hala ka puʻuwai puʻupuʻu, ʻo ke ao ʻeleʻele i uhi ʻia i ka pōʻai ʻenehana holoʻokoʻa i ka makahiki i hala e pili ana e hāpai?Wahi a Bloomberg, ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei ka hapa nui o nā hui chip e loaʻa ana kēia mākeke wela i kahi huli nui no ka manawa lōʻihi i ka wā e hiki mai ana, a ke manaʻo nei kekahi poʻe e hoʻomaka ana ka ʻoihana semiconductor i ka hāʻule maikaʻi loa i loko o nā makahiki he ʻumi.
ʻO kekahi mau leʻaleʻa, kekahi mau kaumaha, nā kumukūʻai chip avalanche, ma waho aʻe o ka ʻoihana e noho mālie, hopohopo wau he nui nā mākeke i ka carnival.
01Ua iho ka chip, akā ʻaʻole loa?
ʻAʻole hiki ke hoʻokaʻawale ʻia ka hāʻule ʻana o nā kumukūʻai chip mai ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka uila uila.
Mai ka TSMC hōʻike kālā hou loa, hiki ke ʻike ʻia ʻo ka ʻoihana kelepona, ka mea i kākoʻo mua i ka hapalua o ka ʻāina, ʻaʻole ia ke kumu nui loa o ka loaʻa kālā, a ua manaʻo ʻia e hoʻomau ka emi ʻana o ka hapa o kēia ʻoihana.Wahi a CINNO Research, ʻo ka hoʻouna ʻana o nā kelepona ʻo SoC ʻo Kina i ka hapa mua o 2022 ma kahi o 134 miliona, ma kahi o 16.9% makahiki-ma-makahiki.
ʻO ka ʻaoʻao PC, e like me ka ʻoihana noiʻi mākeke ʻo Mercury Research, i ka hapaha ʻelua o kēia makahiki, ua hāʻule nā mea hoʻouna ʻana i ka papa hana kamepiula desktop i ka pae haʻahaʻa loa ma kahi kokoke i 30 mau makahiki, ʻike ʻia ka nui o nā hoʻouna ʻana i ka nui o ka makahiki-ma-makahiki mai 1984. , Ua hāʻule nā kūʻai kelepona ʻo South Korea i ka 29.2% makahiki i ka makahiki ma Iulai, ua hāʻule nā lako kamepiula a me nā lako kōkua i ka 21.9%, a ua alakaʻi ka hoʻouna ʻana i nā chip memory i ka emi ʻana me ka emi ʻana o 13,5%.
Ke emi nei ka makemake o luna, ke hoʻomau nei ka ʻoki ʻana o nā kauoha i lalo, a maʻalili maoli nā kumukūʻai.
Eia nō naʻe, pono e hoʻomaopopo ʻia ʻo kēia mau chips i hōʻemi i nā kumukūʻai ʻaʻole i pāʻani i kekahi kuleana i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka ʻoihana semiconductor holoʻokoʻa.Ua hāʻule maoli ke kumukūʻai o nā chips?Ma lalo o ka nūhou o ka "plummeting", aia nō nā mea hana i hoʻolaha i ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai kūʻē i ke ʻano, e like me Intel, Qualcomm, Meiman Electronics, Broadcom, etc. e hoʻolālā e hoʻonui i ke kumukūʻai o kekahi o kā lākou huahana chip.
ʻO ka lawe ʻana iā Intel ma ke ʻano he laʻana, e like me Nikkei, ua hōʻike ʻo Intel i nā mea kūʻai aku e hoʻonui ia i ke kumukūʻai o nā huahana semiconductor i ka hapa lua o 2022, a ua manaʻo ʻia e hoʻonui i ke kumukūʻai o kahi ākea o nā huahana e like me nā kikowaena kumu a me ka CPU kamepiula. nā kaʻina hana a me nā ʻāpana peripheral, a ʻokoʻa ka piʻi ʻana ma muli o ke ʻano o ka chip, ka haʻahaʻa loa i nā huahelu hoʻokahi, a hiki i ka piʻi kiʻekiʻe ke piʻi i 10% a 20%.
Ua piʻi aʻe ke kumukūʻai o nā chips?Hiki ke ʻōlelo ʻia ua hāʻule koke ke kumukūʻai o nā mea uila uila ma muli o ka emi ʻana o ka noi, akā ke hoʻomau nei ka ikaika o ka noi no nā MCU ma nā kahua noi ʻē aʻe, e like me ka automotive a me ka hoʻokele ʻoihana, i alakaʻi i ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe o pili pili.Mai ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka hoʻouna ʻana i nā kelepona paʻalima, ua kapa ʻia ka wā e hiki mai ana o ka ʻoihana chip ma ke ʻano he kūʻai lohi, akā ʻo ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻaʻole i pau ka pōkole chip i kekahi mau ʻoihana.
ʻOi aku ka nui o nā pahu kaʻa, 2022 China Nansha International Integrated Circuit Industry Forum hōʻike i nā huahana chip i kēia manawa hiki ke hoʻokō wale i ka awelika o 31% o nā pono o nā mea hana kaʻa, ua ʻōlelo pū ʻo Xpeng Motors 'He Xiaopeng ʻaʻole i pau ka hemahema o ka ʻoihana ʻoihana. , Ua hāʻawi ʻo GAC i Iune i ka ʻikepili e kū ana ʻo GAC i kahi pōkole chip a hiki i 33,000 mau ʻāpana i ka hapaha lua.
Ke holo mālie nei ka ʻoihana ikehu hou, a ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻohaʻahaʻa ʻia ke koi ʻana i nā chips i ka wā e hiki mai ana.Ua hōʻike ʻia e pono ke kaʻa maʻamau e hoʻohana i 500 chips,nā kaʻa ikehu houua lako me ka oi chips, i ka makahiki i hala global kaʻa kuai ma kahi o 81.05 miliona wae, 'o ia hoʻi, ka holoʻokoʻa automotive kaulahao pono 40.5 biliona chips.
Eia kekahi, ke kiʻekiʻe nei nā ʻāpana kiʻekiʻe ma ke kuahu mākeke, ma ka ʻaoʻao hoʻokahi, ʻaʻole i mae ke kaulahao ʻoihana upstream no nā chips me ka ʻenehana kaʻina holomua.Ua hōʻike ʻia ma mua e hoʻokō ʻo TSMC's 3nm chip i ka hana nui i Kepakemapa, a ʻo Apple ka mea kūʻai mua e hoʻohana i ka chip 3nm TSMC.
Ua hōʻike ʻia e hoʻokomo ʻo Apple i ka kaʻina hana A17 hou i ka makahiki aʻe, a me ka kaʻina hana M3 series, e hoʻohana ana i ka TSMC's 3 nanometers.Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, aia ka hapa o nā lako semiconductor kiʻekiʻe, a ʻaʻole i manaʻo ʻia ka hoʻopuka ʻana o 3nm a me 2nm holomua kiʻekiʻe, a aia paha kahi hāʻawi o 10% a 20% ma 2024 ~ 2025.
ʻO ia ka mea e emi ai ka hāʻule o nā kumukūʻai.Hōʻike nā hōʻailona āpau iā mākou e hāʻule ana nā chips a mamao loa ka ʻoihana mai ka maʻalahi e like me ka mea i ʻike ʻia.
02 ʻAʻole ʻoluʻolu nā mea kūʻai aku?
Ua mālie kekahi ʻaoʻao, ʻaʻole pōmaikaʻi kekahi ʻaoʻao.
Ua hele aku nā ʻāpana uila o nā mea kūʻai aku i ka manawa hanohano o nā makahiki ʻelua, a me ka emi ʻana o ka hoʻohana uila, ua haʻalele lākou i ke kuahu.I kēia manawa, ua hoʻomaka ka nui o nā ʻoihana chip i ka hoʻololi ʻana i kā lākou ʻoihana, mai ka mea kūʻai aku i ka ʻoihana a me ka ʻenekinia.Ua helu ʻo TSMC i ka mākeke kaʻa ma ke ʻano he papahana mua i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana, a ua hōʻike ʻia ma ka ʻaoʻao o ka ʻāina, ʻo ka ʻoihana kaʻa o nā mea pāʻani MCU kūloko e like me GigaDevice Innovation, Zhongying Electronics, a me AMEC e ʻike hou aʻe nei. .
ʻO ke kikoʻī, ua komo ʻo GigaDevice i ka pae hoʻāʻo hoʻohālike o ka mea kūʻai aku me kāna huahana MCU automotive-grade mua ma Malaki, a manaʻo ʻia e hoʻokō i ka hana nui i kēia makahiki;Hoʻohana nui ʻia ʻo Zhongying Electronics no ka ʻāpana MCU hoʻomalu kino, a manaʻo ʻia e hoʻi i ka waena o ka makahiki;Ua hōʻike ʻo AMEC Semiconductor i kona manaʻo paʻa e hoʻomohala i nā chips automotive i kāna prospectus, a ua hoʻolālā kāna IPO e hoʻonui i 729 miliona yuan, kahi o 283 miliona yuan e hoʻohana ʻia no ka noiʻi a me nā papahana hoʻomohala automotive-grade.
Ma hope o nā mea a pau, ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ka helu localization o ka mīkini kaʻa kaʻa a me nā chip control ma mua o 1%, ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ka localization o nā sensor ma mua o 4%, a ʻo ka helu localization o nā semiconductors mana, hoʻomanaʻo, a me nā kamaʻilio he 8%, 8%, a 3%, kēlā me kēia.Ke hoʻoweliweli nei ka hana ʻana o nā kaʻa kaʻa hou, a ʻo ke kaiaola naʻauao holoʻokoʻa me ka hoʻokele autonomous e hoʻopau i ka nui o nā semiconductors i ka pae hope.
A pehea ka paʻakikī o ka hoʻomau ʻana i ka paʻa ʻana me nā ʻāpana mea kūʻai aku?
Ua hōʻike mua ʻia ua hoʻokuʻu ʻo Samsung i ke kūʻai ʻana i nā ʻāpana ʻoihana āpau, me nā panela, nā kelepona paʻalima a me nā ʻāpana hoʻomanaʻo, a ʻo nā mea hana hoʻomanaʻo Korea e lawe i ka hoʻolālā e hōʻemi i nā kumukūʻai ma mua o 5% i ke kūʻai ʻana i ke kūʻai.Ua ʻike pū ʻo Nuvoton Technology, ka mea loea i nā mea uila uila, ʻoi aku ka piʻi ʻana o kāna waiwai ma mua o 5.5 mau manawa i ka makahiki i hala, me ka loaʻa kālā he NT $7.27 no kēlā me kēia.Ua palahalaha ka hana ma ʻApelila a me Mei i kēia makahiki, me ka hāʻule ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā e 2.18% a me 3.04% i kēlā me kēia mahina ma ka mahina.
ʻAʻole hiki i kekahi ke wehewehe i kekahi mea, akā hōʻike ka Wind data ma ka lā 9 o Mei, 126 mau hui semiconductor a puni ka honua i hoʻolaha i kā lākou hōʻike kālā no ka hapaha mua o 2022, kahi o 16 i ʻike i ka emi ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā a i ʻole. he poho.Ke holo wikiwiki nei nā mea kūʻai aku i ko lākou hāʻule ʻana mai ka makemake ʻole, a ua lilo nā kaʻa a me ka hoʻokele ʻoihana i wahi e ʻimi pono ai i ka mākeke chip.
Akā, he mea maʻalahi loa ia e like me ka mea i manaʻo ʻia?
ʻOi aku ka nui o kekahi mau mea hana chip home, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka neʻe ʻana mai ke kahua o ka mea kūʻai uila i ke kahua kaʻa kaʻa ma mua o ka wela o ka mākeke.ʻO ka mea mua, pono e loaʻa nā ʻāpana kūloko i lalo, a ʻo ka mea kūʻai aku ke kūlana mua, helu no 27%.ʻOiai inā ʻoe e nānā i ka honua, ʻo ka mākeke kūloko nō hoʻi ka mākeke semiconductor nui loa, hōʻike ka ʻikepili i ka makahiki 2021, ua hōʻea ke kūʻai aku ʻana o ka mākeke semiconductor Kina i ka 29.62 biliona kālā ʻAmelika, kahi makahiki hoʻonui o 58%, ʻo ia ka honua. ʻO ka mākeke semiconductor nui loa, e helu ana no 28.9% o ka nui o nā kūʻai semiconductor o ka honua.
ʻO ka lua, ʻo ka ʻoihana chip ponoʻī ka nui o ka loaʻa kālā ma nā kelepona akamai a me nā kahua pili 5G.No ka laʻana, ʻo ka hoʻouna ʻana o TSMC i ka 70% o ka mākeke MCU automotive, akā ʻo nā chips automotive wale nō ka 3.31% o kāna loaʻa kālā 2020.Ma ka Q1 2022, ʻo ka TSMC's smartphone a me nā ʻāpana HPC e helu no 40% a me 41% o ka loaʻa kālā, ʻoiai ʻo IOT kaʻa DCE a me nā mea ʻē aʻe e helu wale no 8%, 5%, 3% a me 3% pakahi.
ʻOi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ke koi, akā aia nō ka loaʻa kālā, a ʻo ka dilemma paha ke poʻo nui loa i ka mākeke semiconductor.
03 Ma hope o ka boom, hauʻoli nā mea kūʻai?
Ke lulu ʻia ke kumukūʻai o nā chips, ʻoi aku ka hauʻoli o nā mea kūʻai aku, nā kelepona paʻa lima, nā kaʻa a me nā lako home akamai i lilo i wahi carnival ʻai i manaʻo pinepine ʻia ma hope o ka hoʻemi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai o nā chips, ʻoi aku hoʻi nā kelepona paʻalima.ʻAʻole i liʻuliʻu ma hope o ka hāʻule ʻana o ke kumukūʻai chip, aia nā poʻe e hoʻōho ana ma nā paepae kaiaulu e kūʻai i nā kelepona paʻa i ka hapa ʻelua o kēia makahiki.
Ma hope koke iho, ua hoʻemi ʻia ke kumukūʻai o ka ikehu hou, ua hoʻemi ʻia ke kumukūʻai o nā huahana uila, a ua hoʻemi ʻia ke kumukūʻai o nā mea hana hale… Hele mai nā leo e like me kēia.Eia nō naʻe, ʻaʻohe ʻike maopopo no ka manawa inā e hoʻemi ʻia ke kumukūʻai kūpono ma ke kaulahao huahana, akā ʻo ka ʻōlelo ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻaʻole e hoʻohaʻahaʻa ʻia ke kumu kūʻai ma ka mākeke kūʻai.
E nana mua i ka loa influential mobile kelepona kahua, i loko o nā makahiki i hala iho nei, lawe lima kelepona Manufacturers e hoala mau kumukuai, haʻahaʻa-hopena noho malie, kiʻekiʻe-hopena swagger, ka hiki o ka ho'ēmi kumukūʻai no kekahi manawa he haʻahaʻa loa.Eia kekahi, ʻaʻole i kiʻekiʻe ka loaʻa kālā o nā mea hana kelepona paʻa.Ma ka Huawei Developers Conference, ʻo Yang Haisong, ka hope pelekikena o ka ʻoihana ʻoihana mea kūʻai aku ʻo Huawei, i ʻōlelo ʻia he haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa ka waiwai o nā mea hana kelepona paʻa lima, a ʻoi aku ka hapa o ka mākeke kelepona home ma mua o ka hapalua, akā ʻo ka loaʻa kālā he 10 wale nō. %.
Eia kekahi, ua emi iho ka chip, akā, ʻaʻole maikaʻi loa ke kumukūʻai o nā mea ʻē aʻe, e like me nā sensors a me nā pale, nā hiʻohiʻona kiʻekiʻe e lilo i kumu nui, ʻo nā mea hana kelepona paʻa i nā koi kaulahao e ʻoi aku ka ikaika. Ua hōʻike ʻia ʻo OPPO, Xiaomi i hoʻonohonoho i nā sensor kūʻokoʻa iā Sony a me Samsung.
Ma kēia ʻano, he pōmaikaʻi ia no nā mea kūʻai aku ʻaʻole e piʻi ke kumukūʻai o nā kelepona paʻalima.
Ke nānā nei i ka ikehu hou, ʻo ka chip mainstream i ʻoki i ke kumukūʻai i kēia manawa, ʻaʻole ia ma ke kahua o ka hana kaʻa, ʻaʻole e haʻi ʻia, ʻo ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai i ka pōʻai kaʻa ikehu hou i ka hapa mua o ka makahiki ʻaʻole like, a ʻo ka ʻO ke kumu ma hope o ia mea ʻaʻole nā pilikia chip āpau.Ke piʻi nei ke kumukūʻai o nā mea nui, inā he nickel, kila, aluminika me nā electrodes maikaʻi a maikaʻi ʻole, ke piʻi wale ke kumukūʻai, ke kiʻekiʻe nei ke kumukūʻai o nā pila, a ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻopili wale ʻia nā kumu like ʻole i ka chip.
ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻaʻole hiki ke ʻike ʻia ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana o ke kaʻa kaʻa, no ka mea, ʻo kēia makahiki, ʻo nā pahu kukui LED a me nā mīkini hoʻokele kaʻa he 30% -40% ka emi ʻana o ke kumu kūʻai, a he mea kānalua ia e pāʻani i kahi hana pale i ka koina hope o ka mea nona ke kaa.
Ma waho aʻe o nā kelepona akamai, ʻo ka hopena nui loa o nā mea kūʻai aku ʻo ia paha nā mea hale akamai e like me ka air conditioners a me nā friji, a ʻo ka noi ʻana no nā MCU o nā mea hana keʻokeʻo nui ʻekolu ʻaʻole haʻahaʻa, mai 570 miliona ma 2017 a ʻoi aku ma mua o 700. miliona i ka makahiki 2022, ʻo ia ka nui o nā MCU air conditioning ma mua o 60%.
Eia nō naʻe, ʻo nā chips i hoʻohana ʻia i ka māla home akamai he mau ʻāpana haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa me nā kaʻina hana hope, i kūʻē ʻia i nā kaʻina holomua e like me 3nm a me 7nm, ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe ma mua o 28nm a i ʻole 45nm.ʻIke ʻoe, hoʻohana nui ʻia kēia mau ʻāpana ma muli o kā lākou ʻike loea haʻahaʻa, a ʻaʻole kiʻekiʻe ke kumukūʻai ʻāpana.
No nā hui mea hana hale, ʻo ka ʻenehana haʻahaʻa hiki iā lākou ke hoʻokō i ka pono ponoʻī.Ma 2017, ua hoʻokumu ʻia ka māhele microelectronics o Gree;Ma 2018, ua hoʻolaha ʻo Konka i ka hoʻokumu kūhelu o ka māhele ʻenehana o nā semiconductors;I ka makahiki 2018, hoʻolaha ʻo Midea i kona komo ʻana i ka hana chip a hoʻokumu ʻo Meiren Semiconductor Co., Ltd., a ma Ianuali 2021, ua hoʻokumu ʻia ʻo Meiken Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd., me kahi pānaʻi hana nui makahiki o kēia manawa ma kahi o 10 miliona mau pahu MCU.
Wahi a nā helu helu piha ʻole, nui nā ʻoihana ʻoihana home kahiko e like me TCL, Konka, Skyworth, a me Haier i hoʻonohonoho i ke kahua semiconductor, ʻo ia hoʻi, ʻaʻole i kāohi ʻia kēia kahua e nā chips.
I lalo, ʻaʻole i lalo?ʻOi aku ka hoʻemi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai chip e like me ka pana wahaheʻe, ʻaʻole hauʻoli nā mea hana i luna no ka manawa pōkole, waiho ʻia nā mea kūʻai aku.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Dec-29-2022